Prediction Markets Are Opinions With Prices

29 Jun 2026

A prediction market turns disagreement into positions with prices. The number is not truth. It is a compressed record of what participants, incentives, liquidity, rules, and available information produced at a moment.

Resolution matters as much as prediction. A market with ambiguous terms can price confidence perfectly and still resolve badly. A clean question and a credible source are infrastructure, not housekeeping.

For software, the temptation is to treat every changing probability as a signal. I want to treat it as an observation with provenance: who can participate, what counts as winning, and when the answer becomes final?

Prices are opinions with consequences. They still need context.